Democrat Jay Jones is facing a serious challenge in his campaign for attorney general in Virginia due to a texting scandal that has raised concerns for the entire Democratic ticket. Pollster Brent Buchanan, founder of Cygnal, highlighted how Jones’ August 2022 texts, which expressed a desire for harm against a Republican lawmaker, have shifted the political landscape in Virginia. This scandal, along with the party’s reluctance to openly address transgender issues, is giving Republicans a notable advantage.
Buchanan explained that key elements of any political campaign are money, message, and messenger. Currently, the Republicans are winning on message and messenger, while the Democrats have the financial edge. Since the scandal broke earlier this month, Jones has fallen behind Republican incumbent Jason Miyares in the polls. The repercussions are also being felt in the governor’s race, where former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has diminished.
Buchanan noted that typically, governor’s races influence down-ballot races. However, the fallout from Jones’ scandal and the lack of condemnation from fellow Democrats have turned expectations upside down. For example, a recent poll showed that Earle-Sears has narrowed the gap from seven points to just four-and-a-half points behind Spanberger, despite the Democrats spending significantly more on their campaign.
The election is set for November 4, and Spanberger has much at stake. Interestingly, a recent poll revealed that many voters in Virginia are still unaware of Jones’ controversial texts. Additionally, Spanberger’s handling of transgender issues has raised eyebrows. During a recent debate, she avoided taking a firm stance on policies regarding school facilities for transgender students, stating that it should be addressed locally.
Buchanan pointed out that the issue of transgender rights is becoming increasingly prominent again. He noted that cultural issues played a significant role in Donald Trump’s election in 2024, and similar dynamics seem to be emerging in the 2025 elections. Republicans are actively focusing on these topics in their advertising, while Democrats still enjoy a substantial financial advantage.
As the election date approaches, the impact of Jones’ scandal and the ongoing discussions about transgender rights could significantly shape the outcome for Democrats in Virginia.
