The likelihood of the 2024 YR4 asteroid colliding with Earth has risen significantly, according to recent data from NASA. This asteroid, which is approximately the size of a football pitch, now has a 3.1% chance of impacting our planet by the end of 2032. This marks a notable increase from earlier estimates, which suggested only a 1.2% chance of a direct hit as recently as January.
The updated calculations indicate that the risk of an impact has increased by 2.3%. For context, astronomers note that the odds of winning a major lottery are about one in 14 million, highlighting the seriousness of this asteroid’s potential threat. If it were to strike, experts warn it could cause "severe damage" to a specific region.
Despite the heightened risk, scientists emphasize that there is no immediate cause for alarm. They continue to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory, working to refine their understanding of its path. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are utilizing the Webb Space Telescope to observe 2024 YR4 in the coming weeks, before it becomes too distant to track, not to be visible again until 2028.
The asteroid is expected to approach Earth on December 22, 2032, and current projections suggest it could enter the atmosphere along a broad corridor that intersects numerous major cities. NASA has indicated that if the asteroid were on a collision course, it could impact somewhere along this risk corridor, which spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
Asteroids like 2024 YR4 are remnants from the formation of the solar system, dating back 4.6 billion years. The dynamics of the main asteroid belt, located between Mars and Jupiter, can sometimes displace these rocks, sending them on new trajectories towards Earth.
Experts remain hopeful that as more observations are made, the probability of impact may decrease, with some suggesting it could eventually drop to zero. The ongoing research aims to provide a clearer picture of the asteroid’s future path and potential risks it may pose to our planet.