President Donald Trump is sending mixed signals about U.S. policy toward Iran, especially concerning its nuclear program. While he appears more open to negotiations than during his first term, he still maintains tough demands. Recently, Trump set a two-month deadline for Iran to reach a deal with the U.S. This shift toward a slightly more conciliatory approach is overshadowed by the administration’s aggressive stance towards Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen. Trump warned that he would hold Iran accountable for any attacks from this group, and U.S. forces have already launched new airstrikes in Yemen.
Some prominent Republicans, like Senators Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz, have long pushed for military action against Iran. Cruz has openly called for regime change, while Cotton has downplayed the risks of military intervention, suggesting it would be similar to past airstrikes rather than a large ground invasion. Trump echoed this sentiment in 2019, insisting that any conflict with Iran would be short and conducted from the air, claiming it would lead to Iran’s "obliteration."
Such confident predictions about quick victories in war have a troubling history. For instance, before the Iraq War, many leaders believed it would be easy, but the reality turned out to be vastly different, resulting in significant casualties and ongoing turmoil. Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, initially warned against the consequences of attacking Iran, suggesting it would be far more devastating than the Iraq War. However, she has recently shifted her tone, now advocating for U.S. strikes against Houthi targets, which raises concerns about her stance on a broader conflict with Iran.
There are valid reasons to worry that a war with Iran would not be a simple affair. Iran’s Houthi allies have already disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, which could have serious effects on the global economy. Additionally, Iran has military capabilities that could threaten U.S. interests, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for oil shipments. Iran’s advancements in drone technology also pose a significant risk, as evidenced by the use of Iranian drones in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Launching an attack on Iran could lead to a major conflict in the Middle East. The expectation of a quick victory with minimal costs is misguided and could lead the U.S. into a prolonged and costly war. The Trump administration faces a crucial decision: to reconsider its aggressive posture or risk stepping into a dangerous escalation.