Recent discussions on U.S. foreign policy have sparked renewed interest in the strategic relationship between Russia, China, and the United States. The debate centers on whether the U.S. should pursue a diplomatic and economic thaw with Russia to counter the growing partnership between Moscow and Beijing. This idea has gained traction, particularly during the Trump administration, which sees a potential easing of tensions with Russia as a way to weaken the bond between these two powers.
Critics, including former Ambassador Michael McFaul and Professor Evan S. Medeiros, argue against this approach. They believe that trying to separate Russia from China is ill-advised. According to them, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to cooperate, and any attempt to do so could lead to more complications for U.S. interests globally.
The critics warn that Putin may use any diplomatic progress with the U.S. to further his own agenda, rather than genuinely prioritizing American interests. They suggest that the U.S. should instead recognize Russia’s role as a key player in the balance of power between Washington and Beijing. This acknowledgment could lead to a strategic shift that would ease America’s responsibilities in Europe and create better conditions for engaging with China.
While some advocate for a formal alliance with Russia against China, experts caution that this is neither practical nor desirable. Moscow has no interest in being seen as a subordinate partner to China, especially given the current economic imbalance. As of 2023, China accounts for a significant portion of Russia’s trade, while Russia represents a small fraction of China’s foreign commerce. This dependency has raised concerns in Moscow about its status in the relationship.
Improving ties with the West could allow Russia to assert its own interests more effectively. A more balanced relationship would enable Moscow to pursue its national interests independently, particularly in areas where it does not see eye to eye with Beijing. This includes managing its influence in Central Asia, limiting military cooperation with China, and strengthening ties with countries like India and Vietnam.
The ongoing tensions between Russia and China, fueled by Moscow’s reliance on Beijing, may become more pronounced if relations with the West improve. A framework that allows Russia to rejoin Western economic systems could reduce China’s leverage over it. This shift could also encourage Russia to engage with the U.S. on issues like North Korea and regional security, rather than aligning solely with China.
The conversation around U.S. foreign policy is shifting, as some voices call for a more pragmatic approach. They argue that the U.S. must adapt to a multipolar world, engaging with both allies and competitors in a way that reflects current geopolitical realities. The U.S.–Russia–China dynamic is a critical area for this new strategy, and how it unfolds will have significant implications for global politics in the years to come.