For many Americans, understanding Turkey’s foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can be quite challenging. Since his rise to power, Turkey has taken bold steps that often seem to go against its traditional alliances, particularly with the United States and NATO. From purchasing Russian S-400 defense systems to supporting Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia, Turkey is asserting itself as an independent regional power.
In December 2022, Turkey’s influence was highlighted when its intelligence chief was seen praying at the Umayyad mosque in Damascus, a significant gesture following the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad. This act and others have led some analysts to suggest that Turkey is trying to reclaim its historical role as a successor to the Ottoman Empire.
Historically, Turkey’s close ties with the U.S. were unusual and stemmed from the Cold War era when Turkey sought protection from the Soviet Union. This alliance lasted from Turkey’s NATO membership in 1952 until the collapse of the USSR in 1991. After this period, Turkey began to pursue a more independent foreign policy, particularly under Turgut Özal in the 1980s, who initiated pro-market reforms that significantly boosted the economy.
A pivotal moment came in 1991 when Turkey distanced itself from U.S. military actions during the First Gulf War. This decision was influenced by fears of a Kurdish state emerging in northern Iraq, which threatened Turkey’s internal stability. The Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a group Turkey considers a terrorist organization, gained strength during this time, complicating relations between Ankara and Washington.
The relationship took another hit in 2003 when Turkey’s parliament denied U.S. forces access to launch operations in Iraq. This refusal marked a significant shift in Turkish public sentiment, as many citizens felt a sense of relief when the U.S. faced challenges in Iraq.
Erdoğan’s rise to power in 2002 initially seemed to promise a pro-American approach. However, as he consolidated power, his government took a more nationalist and authoritarian turn, especially after a failed coup attempt in 2016. Erdoğan’s government cracked down on dissent, targeting the Gülen movement, which had previously supported him. This shift alienated many in the West.
In recent years, Turkey has become more assertive regionally, intervening in conflicts in Syria and Libya and supporting groups like the Muslim Brotherhood. Erdoğan has also made symbolic moves, such as converting the Hagia Sophia back into a mosque, which has drawn criticism from secularists and Christians.
Despite some military successes, such as victories in Nagorno-Karabakh and significant roles in the Ukraine conflict, Turkey’s economic situation remains precarious. The country continues to face high inflation and a weakening currency, which have raised concerns about Erdoğan’s grip on power.
While Turkey’s resurgence is notable, it remains a regional power with limitations. Its recent actions may be viewed as an attempt to leverage its historical legacy, but the reality is that Turkey’s ambitions are tempered by current geopolitical realities. As Erdoğan’s government faces challenges, both domestically and internationally, the future of Turkey’s foreign policy remains uncertain.