Europe is facing a surprising challenge in its response to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Despite imposing sanctions on Russia, European countries are now importing more ammonia from Russia than they did before the conflict began. This is concerning because ammonia is a key ingredient in fertilizers, essential for global food production.
When the war broke out in early 2022, many expected that sanctions would severely weaken Russia’s economy. The idea was that restricting trade would make it harder for Russia to sustain its military efforts. However, the reality has been different. While some European imports to Russia have decreased, many goods still make their way there through indirect routes. Russian oil continues to be sold globally, albeit at lower prices due to sanctions.
Gas imports from Russia have dropped significantly, from about half of the EU’s total gas supply to around 20%. This reduction was seen as a positive step. However, the demand for gas in Europe has not disappeared. Instead, the continent has shifted its reliance from natural gas to ammonia imports, primarily from Russia.
As natural gas prices soared, European ammonia production has declined. Factories have shut down, and the continent has turned to imports to meet its fertilizer needs. In fact, between 2018 and 2019, Europe imported 4.6 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers from Russia. In contrast, imports from Russia in the 2023-24 period are projected to reach 4.9 million tonnes.
This shift raises important questions about Europe’s strategy. Instead of reducing its dependence on Russian resources, the continent seems to have simply swapped one reliance for another. This situation complicates Europe’s stance as it calls on other nations to limit their ties with Russia.
As discussions about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, the effectiveness of sanctions is under scrutiny. While they have changed some trade dynamics, the overall impact on Russia’s war capabilities appears limited. The ongoing reliance on Russian ammonia highlights the challenges Europe faces in fully disengaging from Russian exports.