Donald Trump is looking to play a significant role as a peacemaker amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, with a particular focus on Iran. Recent negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding a nuclear deal have gained momentum, presenting a potential opportunity for Trump to secure a diplomatic breakthrough.
The stakes are high. Trump must decide whether to support a deal that would limit Iran’s nuclear program while opening up economic opportunities for American companies, or risk escalating tensions that could lead to war. The U.S. and Iran have recently engaged in three rounds of indirect talks and one expert meeting in just over two weeks. Following discussions in Oman, Trump expressed optimism, stating that the negotiations are progressing positively and that a deal could be reached without military action.
The main issue on the table is to restrict Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for economic relief. However, U.S. officials have sent mixed signals about what they consider an acceptable Iranian nuclear program, which could complicate the talks. Hardliners in the U.S. who favor a more aggressive stance have proposed a "Libya model" that would require Iran to dismantle its nuclear program entirely. Other suggestions include prohibiting Iran from enriching uranium on its soil, which Iran has rejected as a violation of its rights under international treaties.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has shown support for the current negotiations, but he has also indicated that Iran will not yield to extreme demands. This creates a delicate balance, as both sides must navigate their respective political pressures while trying to reach an agreement.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes Trump’s negotiation strategy. He advocates for military action against Iran to dismantle its nuclear capabilities completely. It remains unclear if the U.S. has set any boundaries regarding Israeli military actions during these negotiations. Trump has acknowledged that while he hasn’t prevented Israel from attacking Iranian sites, he has not made it easy for them either.
As the talks continue, tensions remain high. A recent explosion at Iran’s largest port killed over 60 people and injured many more, stirring rumors of Israeli involvement, although the Iranian government has not confirmed any links to an attack. Such incidents could escalate tensions and complicate diplomatic efforts.
For Trump, the failure of these negotiations could lead to significant consequences. A military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely only delay its program rather than eliminate it. The U.S. would need to commit significant resources to regular military actions, which could provoke retaliatory measures from Iran and destabilize the region further.
To avoid this scenario, Trump needs to communicate clearly with Netanyahu, emphasizing that no military actions should occur while negotiations are ongoing. The potential cost of failing to reach a diplomatic agreement is substantial for both nations, as it could lead to a prolonged conflict.
Looking ahead, both Trump and Khamenei should seize this moment to keep the dialogue moving forward. Talks could include high-level discussions to solidify goals and prevent spoilers from derailing the process. A new deal could involve expanded verification measures of Iran’s nuclear program, longer restrictions on nuclear activities, and improved trade relations between the U.S. and Iran.
The current geopolitical landscape presents Trump with a unique opportunity to forge a deal that could stabilize the region, improve U.S.-Iran relations, and enhance security for Israel. However, achieving this will require careful navigation of both domestic and international pressures.