The number of illegal border apprehensions in the United States has significantly decreased, with January 2025 seeing just 29,116 apprehensions, the lowest figure since May 2020. This sharp decline follows a stark contrast to January 2022, when encounters at the southwest border exceeded 150,000. The White House attributes this trend to what they are calling “the Trump effect,” suggesting that former President Donald Trump’s stringent immigration policies and rhetoric have had a lasting impact on border security.
Since taking office, President Trump has maintained a tough stance on illegal immigration, with his administration focusing on strict enforcement measures. This approach appears to have altered perceptions about the risks associated with crossing the border illegally. Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, noted that previous Republican candidates, such as Jeb Bush and John McCain, had also promised to enforce immigration laws but lacked the resolve to do so effectively. In contrast, Trump’s administration has taken a more aggressive approach, exemplified by his appointment of Tom Homan as the border czar. Homan, a veteran of the Trump administration, is known for his commitment to strict immigration enforcement and has emphasized the need for consequences for illegal entry.
The article points out that the perception of a lack of serious repercussions for illegal immigration has been a significant factor driving unauthorized crossings. Homan has argued that without showing clear consequences for breaking immigration laws, the border crisis will persist. The article also highlights the ongoing debate about the treatment of undocumented immigrants, particularly in blue states and sanctuary cities, which have often resisted federal enforcement efforts. For instance, California is projected to spend around $9.5 billion on healthcare for illegal immigrants in the current fiscal year. A decrease in the number of new unauthorized immigrants could lead to fewer demands on public resources and potentially higher wages for workers, as the labor market adjusts.
Despite the current decline in apprehensions, Krikorian warns that complacency could lead to a resurgence in illegal immigration. He advocates for mandatory use of E-Verify by employers to ensure that unauthorized workers do not find employment, which could help maintain the current trend. The article concludes by noting that Trump’s strong stance on border security was a significant factor in his electoral success and that he must continue to prioritize this issue to maintain public support.