President Donald Trump is gearing up for his first international trip of his second term, starting this Tuesday in Saudi Arabia. In Riyadh, he will meet with several key leaders, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and surprisingly, Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.
This meeting could mark a significant shift in Middle Eastern politics. Al-Sharaa, who was once a top target for the U.S. and known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has emerged as a central figure following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last year. His group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now controls much of Syria’s administrative functions. However, HTS has a troubling history, having roots in Al Qaeda and being linked to numerous violent acts, including a recent massacre that claimed over 1,000 lives.
Despite its past, HTS claims it is now independent from any external terrorist organization. This rebranding effort includes attempts to engage with Western countries. However, many, including Israel, remain skeptical. Israeli officials have labeled HTS as a terrorist group and have responded aggressively to its rise, conducting nearly 500 airstrikes in Syria shortly after Assad’s fall.
The situation is complicated further by Turkey’s support for HTS. Turkey sees the group as a way to counter Iranian influence and Kurdish separatism in the region. This creates a rift between Turkey and Israel, putting the U.S. in a challenging position as it tries to balance these conflicting interests.
The implications of Syria’s instability extend beyond its borders. Russia, which has heavily invested in the Assad regime, is now reassessing its role in the region. Meanwhile, Iran, having spent billions to support Assad, is concerned about HTS potentially undermining its influence.
China, while less directly affected, is wary of the situation as well. The rise of HTS could lead to complications for China, especially regarding the thousands of Uyghur fighters who joined the conflict against Assad.
Western nations are already adjusting their strategies. France and Germany have begun reaching out to al-Sharaa, acknowledging his new position. The U.S. has also started to reduce its military presence in Syria, indicating a shift in approach.
As the U.S. considers its next steps, it must define its strategy clearly. The goal is not to endorse HTS but to find ways to limit the influence of adversaries like Iran and Russia in the region. This means engaging with HTS while setting clear conditions for cooperation.
Early signs suggest that HTS may be open to dialogue, as its new foreign minister has called for lifting sanctions in exchange for cooperation. The U.S. could use this moment to facilitate a more stable environment in Syria, working with both Turkey and Israel to ensure that their interests align.
Navigating this complex landscape will require careful diplomacy. The U.S. must balance its interests with the realities on the ground, recognizing that power dynamics in Syria are shifting. While it may be uncomfortable, engaging with HTS could provide a path forward, allowing the U.S. to influence the situation without direct involvement.