An asteroid that once raised alarms about a potential collision with Earth is now considered no threat at all. Scientists have reassured the public that the 2024 YR4 asteroid, which had a brief moment of concern earlier this month, is no longer on the risk list.
The asteroid was first detected in December when telescopes in Chile spotted it speeding through space at about 38,000 miles per hour. Initially, the chance of it hitting Earth in 2032 was estimated at 1.2%, but that risk tripled to approximately 3% shortly after. This increase put it at the top of the risk list for a short time, leading to discussions about possible deflection missions.
However, recent assessments from the European Space Agency and NASA have drastically reduced the chances of impact. The European Space Agency now estimates the risk at just 0.001%, while NASA places it slightly higher at 0.0017%. Both agencies have stated that there is no significant risk of the asteroid impacting Earth in 2032 or beyond.
Paul Chodas, who leads NASA’s studies on near-Earth objects, expressed confidence that the odds of an impact would not increase again. He noted that the outcome was expected, even if they couldn’t be completely sure at the outset.
Telescopes will continue to monitor 2024 YR4 as it moves away from Earth. The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to help determine its size, which is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, or about 130 to 300 feet.
While the asteroid no longer poses a threat to Earth, it has provided a valuable opportunity for scientific study. Interestingly, there is still a small chance—about 1.7%—that 2024 YR4 could impact the moon on December 22, 2032.