Ivo Daalder, the CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former U.S. ambassador to NATO, recently shared his views on the future of the alliance in an article for Foreign Affairs. Daalder, who is well-respected in foreign policy circles, argues that while former President Donald Trump has often been criticized for his approach to NATO, he may have a point: Europe is capable of handling its own security.
Daalder points out that NATO is facing significant challenges, the worst in its 76-year history. He believes that Trump’s questioning of NATO’s core principles—shared threat perception and collective defense—has raised serious concerns. Trump has been vocal about his belief that European nations do not spend enough on their own defense, suggesting that the U.S. should not bear the financial burden alone.
Daalder also highlights comments made by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who indicated that the U.S. is shifting its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific region. This change in priorities means that European countries must take more responsibility for their own security if NATO is to survive.
Historically, NATO has weathered disagreements among its members. For instance, during the 1960s, French President Charles de Gaulle withdrew from NATO’s command structure, and various allies opposed U.S. actions during the Vietnam War and the Iraq War. Despite these tensions, NATO has continued to expand and adapt.
Daalder agrees with Trump that European nations have the capacity to defend themselves. He calls for a "Europeanization of NATO," which would involve increased defense spending by European members to enhance their military capabilities. However, he acknowledges that this process will take time, estimating that it could take at least five years for Europe to take on a larger leadership role within NATO.
One significant issue that arises from this shift is NATO’s nuclear deterrent. Daalder speculates that while the U.S. may prefer to maintain its nuclear capabilities, the lack of trust in America’s commitment could lead Europe to develop its own deterrent. This sentiment has been echoed by European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron.
In conclusion, Daalder’s analysis suggests that Europe may need to step up its defense efforts, a necessity that Trump has highlighted. With a population three times that of Russia and ten times its resources, Europe has the potential to secure its future. As the dynamics within NATO evolve, the question remains whether European nations will rise to the occasion and take on a more significant role in their own defense.