A new proposal is stirring debate among foreign policy experts, suggesting that the United States should attempt to separate Russia from its growing partnership with China. This idea, known as the "Reverse Nixon Maneuver," has gained traction thanks to strategist Edward Luttwak. He argues that, unlike the 1970s when the U.S. sought to bring China closer to oppose the Soviet Union, the current goal should be to draw Russia away from China.
Luttwak’s proposal comes at a time when Russia’s influence is waning, especially in light of its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. He believes that the U.S. could entice Russia with offers of sanctions relief and economic incentives, hoping to create a rift between Moscow and Beijing. However, many experts are skeptical about the feasibility of this plan.
Historically, the Sino-Soviet split of the 1970s was fueled by significant ideological differences and conflicts, factors that do not exist today. In contrast, Russia and China have strengthened their ties over the years, especially since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Economic cooperation between the two countries has blossomed, with China becoming Russia’s main trading partner. This partnership includes energy deals and technological exchanges, making it hard to envision Russia turning its back on China.
Critics of the Reverse Nixon Maneuver point out that the U.S. lacks the necessary leverage to pull off such a dramatic shift in alliances. While the U.S. could offer some economic incentives, these would likely pale in comparison to the robust trade and military cooperation that Russia currently enjoys with China. Furthermore, both nations have been conducting joint military exercises, which solidifies their partnership on a security level.
Russian officials have also made it clear that they are committed to their relationship with China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Russia will not abandon its commitments to Beijing, indicating that any attempts by the U.S. to drive a wedge between the two countries are unlikely to succeed.
Some analysts suggest a different approach. Instead of trying to separate Russia from China, they propose that the U.S. should work towards isolating Russia with China’s assistance. This strategy would aim to create a new balance of power, with the U.S. and China as the main players influencing global affairs.
As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the idea of a Reverse Nixon Maneuver remains controversial. Many believe that the real challenge lies in how the U.S. can effectively engage with both Russia and China without overestimating its influence. The reality is that the dynamics at play today are vastly different from those of the past, making any attempts to recreate historical strategies seem far-fetched.