Former President Donald Trump has reignited discussions around U.S.-Mexico relations, particularly in the context of illegal immigration and drug trafficking. His recent tariff threats have prompted Mexican leaders to reassess their country’s role in addressing these issues, especially under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum. As Trump monitors the number of illegal crossings from Mexico, he has made it clear that he expects a significant reduction in these figures, warning that failure to do so could lead to renewed tariff discussions.
Historically, U.S. presidents, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, have approached immigration and security issues with Mexico as a collaborative effort. This included significant investments in initiatives like the Merida Plan, which aimed to bolster security in Mexico but ultimately fell short, leading to wasted resources and lives. The Biden administration’s recent framework for security and public health, labeled the "Bicentennial Framework," has also been criticized for lacking tangible results, with both governments quietly managing the flow of illegal migrants rather than implementing effective policies.
Trump’s stance marks a departure from this collaborative approach, emphasizing that Mexico must take responsibility for curbing illegal migration. His administration had previously attempted to hold Mexico accountable for its role in facilitating the movement of migrants through a network of economic activities that generate substantial revenue for the country. Sheinbaum’s recent offer to deploy 10,000 troops to the U.S. border, in response to Trump’s threats, has been viewed as insufficient and a distraction from the core issues at hand.
The economic implications of illegal migration are significant for Mexico. The country receives over $60 billion annually in remittances from migrants in the U.S., accounting for 4.5% of its economy. Additionally, many legitimate businesses in Mexico benefit from supporting migrants during their journey north. However, this informal economy, which constitutes about 30% of Mexico’s GDP, is also intertwined with criminal activities, including drug trafficking and human smuggling.
Experts argue that Sheinbaum must take decisive action to dismantle the support networks for migrants that have flourished in Mexico. This includes imposing stricter visa requirements and increasing military presence along both the southern and northern borders. Critics of the current administration’s approach suggest that without significant changes, the existing migrant support system will continue to thrive, exacerbating the challenges of illegal immigration.
As Trump continues to apply pressure, the dialogue on immigration policy is likely to intensify. Observers note that there may be common ground between Trump and ordinary Mexican citizens, many of whom are concerned about the influx of illegal migrants. The outcome of this renewed focus on immigration and security will be closely watched, particularly as the U.S. prepares for future discussions on tariffs and border control.