Scott Horton’s latest book, "Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine," offers a critical examination of the deteriorating relationship between the United States and Russia, culminating in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Published by the Libertarian Institute, the book spans 690 pages and provides a detailed account of how U.S. foreign policy decisions have contributed to the current crisis.
Horton, who is known for his work as a foreign policy commentator and director at Antiwar.com, meticulously analyzes the events that have led to the current state of affairs. He argues that the U.S. government’s actions, particularly the expansion of NATO into former Soviet territories, have played a significant role in escalating tensions. The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the historical context of these decisions, which he claims have resulted in catastrophic consequences for Ukraine and significant military casualties on both sides of the conflict.
The book outlines a series of pivotal moments that contributed to the breakdown of U.S.-Russia relations. Horton points to the military interventions in the Balkans, support for Chechen rebels, and the backing of various regime-change movements in former Soviet states as critical factors that undermined mutual trust. He highlights the consistent warnings from Russian officials and American foreign policy experts regarding the risks of NATO expansion, which many believed would lead to inevitable conflict.
Horton’s narrative begins with Secretary of State James Baker’s assurances to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand "one inch" eastward if the Soviet Union allowed for German reunification. However, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, these assurances were effectively disregarded, setting the stage for future tensions. The Clinton administration’s decision to expand NATO despite widespread opposition from prominent figures, including former diplomats and defense officials, is a focal point of Horton’s critique.
The author argues that the push for NATO expansion was driven by political and economic interests, including the defense industry’s desire for new markets and the political pressure to support Eastern European countries seeking membership. Horton recounts conversations among key policymakers, revealing a lack of concern for Russia’s perspective and a focus on immediate political gains.
As the narrative progresses, Horton examines the impact of NATO’s eastward expansion on Ukraine, a nation that has found itself at the center of the geopolitical struggle between the West and Russia. The book discusses the implications of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, which has been a contentious issue leading up to Russia’s invasion in 2022. Horton notes that previous U.S. administrations have consistently rejected Russia’s security concerns regarding NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.
The book also highlights a missed opportunity for diplomacy during the early stages of the conflict, when negotiations between Ukraine and Russia suggested a potential path to peace. However, U.S. officials reportedly prioritized military support over diplomatic solutions, leading to a prolonged and devastating war.
In his analysis, Horton raises moral questions about U.S. foreign policy decisions, arguing that the pursuit of NATO expansion lacks a clear strategic rationale and has resulted in unnecessary suffering. He contrasts the motivations behind past conflicts, such as Vietnam and Iraq, with the current situation in Ukraine, suggesting that the rationale for U.S. involvement is increasingly tenuous.
"Provoked" serves as both a historical account and a call for reflection on the consequences of U.S. foreign policy decisions. Horton’s work challenges readers to reconsider the narrative surrounding the Ukraine conflict and the role of Washington in shaping the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. As the war continues, the implications of these decisions remain a critical concern for policymakers and citizens alike.