Donald Trump’s approach to Iran is shifting as he prepares for the 2024 presidential election. When he first took office in January, Trump seemed open to striking a deal with Iran. He avoided aggressive language and emphasized his desire for negotiations, aligning with Tehran’s willingness to engage in talks. However, as the months passed, that opportunity began to fade, largely because Trump has not prioritized Iran amidst other pressing issues like Ukraine and conflicts in Gaza.
In his earlier presidency, Trump was influenced by advisers like Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, who pushed for a tougher stance against Iran. They convinced him that increasing sanctions would force Iran to comply with U.S. demands. Trump believed that squeezing Iran would lead to a deal, but this strategy ultimately leaned towards confrontation rather than diplomacy.
Fast forward to 2024, and Trump’s rhetoric has changed. He is focusing more on peace and negotiations instead of regime change or harsh demands. His running mate, J.D. Vance, has publicly stated that avoiding war with Iran should be a priority. This has raised eyebrows, especially among Israeli leaders who typically favor a stronger stance against Iran.
Despite Trump’s desire for a deal, Iran has not been a priority for his administration. With other international crises taking center stage, the Iran situation has been handed over to the National Security Council, which is filled with voices favoring a more aggressive approach. This shift in focus has led to a disconnect between Trump’s stated goals and the policies being implemented.
Trump recently signed a memorandum reinstating maximum pressure on Iran, a decision he expressed reluctance about. This memorandum reflects many of Pompeo’s earlier demands, which Iran views as non-starters. As a result, Iran’s leaders are hesitant to pursue direct talks, fearing that any negotiations would be sabotaged by hawkish elements within the U.S. government.
On the nuclear front, Iran has been expanding its capabilities significantly. Reports indicate that Iran has accumulated enough highly enriched uranium for several nuclear weapons. This development poses a serious challenge to U.S. efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
As the situation evolves, Israel remains a wild card. The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has historically pushed for a hardline approach to Iran. With the Biden administration’s support for Israel, there is concern that Israel may act independently, potentially escalating tensions further.
As Trump aims to solidify his legacy as a peacemaker, he faces a crucial moment. He has the chance to engage with Iran in a way no other president has. However, if he continues to allow hawks within his administration to dictate policy, he risks turning a potential diplomatic breakthrough into a crisis that could lead to war. The coming months will be critical, as the expiration of certain provisions in the Iran nuclear deal could heighten tensions and push both sides closer to conflict.