On August 6, 2024, a significant event unfolded that will be remembered by both Russians and Ukrainians. Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack into Kursk, a region in Russia, marking the first time since World War II that a foreign army invaded Russian territory. This bold move involved around 10,000 to 12,000 Ukrainian troops, catching the Russian military off guard.
The Russian troops stationed in Kursk were mainly inexperienced young conscripts. They were confused and demoralized, while Ukrainian soldiers celebrated their unexpected success. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked that Russia had brought war to Ukraine and should now face the consequences of its actions.
However, the initial triumph was short-lived. By September, Russia had regrouped and initiated a counteroffensive, deploying tens of thousands of troops, including support from North Korea. They also used glide bombs, which have been a constant threat to Ukrainian cities since the conflict began. While the Ukrainian forces managed to inflict heavy casualties on the Russians, with reports indicating around 16,000 Russian soldiers killed, they ultimately struggled to hold their positions.
As the situation developed, it became clear that the Russian military was regaining control. The Russian Defense Ministry reported reclaiming the town of Sudzha, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat from the region. This raised questions about whether the Kursk offensive had been worth the risk.
From the outset, doubts about the operation had been voiced within the Ukrainian military. Some leaders, including former commander Valery Zaluzhny, were concerned that the lack of a clear post-invasion plan could leave troops vulnerable to counterattacks. Logistical challenges also loomed large; as Ukrainian forces advanced deeper into Kursk, their supply lines stretched thinner, risking isolation.
Different Ukrainian officials had different explanations for the goals of the incursion. Some believed it aimed to destabilize Russia, while others thought capturing Russian soldiers could be used as leverage for negotiating the release of Ukrainian prisoners. Zelensky himself suggested that holding Kursk could pressure Putin into negotiations and divert Russian forces from eastern Ukraine.
However, the operation proved to be a gamble. While it initially boosted Ukrainian morale, that morale began to wane as Russian forces intensified their attacks. The expected diversion of Russian troops from the Donbas region did not materialize, and Russia continued to make gains in eastern Ukraine.
In hindsight, the Kursk operation raised more questions than answers. Despite some success in securing the release of Ukrainian prisoners, the broader objectives were not achieved. The incursion did not lead to a significant shift in the war’s dynamics. Instead, it may have solidified Putin’s resolve against negotiating with Ukraine.
The military strategy behind the operation also drew scrutiny. Diverting experienced troops to a new front could weaken defenses elsewhere, especially given Ukraine’s manpower challenges. With a high casualty rate and a reluctance to draft younger citizens, Ukraine could not afford to treat its soldiers as expendable.
As the dust settles, Ukrainian officials are left pondering a crucial question: Is Ukraine better off now than it was before the Kursk offensive? The answer appears to be a resounding no.