Syria is facing a turbulent time as the power dynamics shift in the region. Recently, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group previously linked to Al Qaeda, managed to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad with help from Turkey. This marks a significant change, as Turkey once opposed HTS. The Syrian National Army (SNA), also backed by Turkey, supported HTS in this effort. Meanwhile, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish group, have been at odds with both the Turks and the Assad regime.
In this chaotic environment, Israel has seized the opportunity to expand its territory in southern Syria. The leader of HTS has made a surprising shift in image, moving away from traditional attire to business suits, and claims he wants to establish a government that respects the diverse groups within Syria. However, the reality on the ground remains uncertain. The SDF recently agreed to integrate with the Syrian government’s military in exchange for political assurances, while the Druze community also signed a deal, potentially thwarting Israel’s plans to use them as a proxy.
On Thursday, the Syrian government introduced a new transitional constitution. This document is a mixed bag, allowing for some Islamist governance while also promising certain freedoms and denouncing extremism. However, HTS-affiliated fighters have been accused of committing violence against Alawite Muslims, a group that largely supported the Assad government. The extent of the Syrian government’s control over these militant groups is still unclear.
The situation raises questions about the presence of U.S. troops in Syria. Currently, there are about 2,000 American soldiers stationed there, although the actual number may be higher. Their purpose is vague, especially since ISIS is no longer a dominant threat. The main concern seems to be Iran’s influence in the region, but U.S. leaders have not clearly defined why troops should remain in such a volatile area.
The U.S. has three primary interests in the Middle East: stopping a regional power from emerging, combating terrorism, and ensuring safe shipping routes. However, having troops in Syria complicates these goals and could lead to unwanted military entanglements.
While the HTS government may not align with American values, it is unrealistic to expect a secular state to emerge in such a complex region. A Sunni government with Turkish backing might help keep Iran’s influence at bay. The U.S. needs stability and a government that upholds the rule of law in Syria. If HTS can provide that, it may be wise for the U.S. to support its efforts.
Recently, the Biden administration has shown awareness of this situation by asking the Pentagon to draft plans for withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria. The agreement with the SDF was also influenced by pressure from Washington. As the situation evolves, many are calling for a reevaluation of American involvement in Syria.