After four years of Republican leadership in Virginia, the upcoming fall election is raising concerns for the GOP. Governor Glenn Youngkin, who has a strong approval rating, cannot run again due to term limits. This November, voters will choose between two women for governor, marking a historic moment for the state. Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is currently leading in early polls against the sitting Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Earle-Sears.
Spanberger has a significant fundraising advantage, having raised over $3 million more than Earle-Sears in the first quarter of 2025. Despite Earle-Sears being unable to fundraise during a 45-day legislative session, Spanberger’s cash reserves are over $7 million, giving her a strong position as the campaign heats up.
Polls show Spanberger ahead by 15 points in a Roanoke College survey, 10 points in a VCU Wilder School poll, and 5 points in a Christopher Newport poll. Earle-Sears is only slightly trailing in some polls, but she has a tough road ahead. The political landscape has changed since Youngkin’s victory, which was partly fueled by the Covid pandemic and voter concerns about mandates and education.
Youngkin’s success was also aided by Democratic missteps. Former Governor Ralph Northam made controversial comments about third-trimester abortions, which many voters found shocking. Additionally, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe’s statement about parental involvement in education did not resonate well with voters, allowing Youngkin to gain traction.
Youngkin, a businessman with a polished image, appealed to moderate voters, especially in Northern Virginia, which has shifted politically over the last two decades. Earle-Sears, a Marine Corps veteran, may struggle to connect with this crucial voting bloc, as indicated by her early polling and fundraising deficits.
Despite her challenges, Earle-Sears has been confirmed as the Republican nominee. However, Spanberger’s experience and calm demeanor may give her an edge. She is seen as a candidate who avoids major gaffes, unlike some of her Democratic predecessors. With the ongoing political chaos in Washington, including economic concerns linked to President Donald Trump’s policies, Earle-Sears may find herself on the defensive throughout the campaign.
As Virginia voters prepare to head to the polls, the political dynamics are shifting, and the stakes are high for both candidates. The outcome could significantly impact the direction of the state and reflect broader national trends.