Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and self-identified Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani are competing in the New York Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday. This race has drawn attention, especially with a recent poll suggesting Mamdani might win through ranked-choice voting.
Steve Kornacki, a political analyst for NBC News, highlighted that there have only been two major polls before the primary, and they show very different results. The Emerson College poll indicates Cuomo leads Mamdani by a narrow margin of 35% to 32% in first-choice votes. However, when it comes to ranked-choice voting, Mamdani takes the lead, winning 52% to Cuomo’s 48%. In contrast, a Marist University poll from a week earlier had Cuomo ahead at 38% to 27% initially and 55% to 45% after ranked-choice rounds.
Ranked-choice voting allows voters to rank up to five candidates by preference. If no candidate gets over 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on the next preferences until someone wins a majority.
The polls differ significantly in two areas: support among black voters and how votes would shift after the elimination of City Comptroller Brad Lander. The Marist poll showed Cuomo with a significant lead among black voters, while the Emerson poll suggests Mamdani has made gains, capturing 38% of that demographic in the final count.
Lander, who has recently been in the news for being arrested during a protest, could play a key role in this primary. He and Mamdani formed an alliance, encouraging their supporters to rank each other high on their ballots while excluding Cuomo. This strategy could explain why Mamdani’s numbers improve if Lander is eliminated.
Political analyst Nate Silver noted that negative campaigning can sometimes backfire in ranked-choice voting, as it keeps candidates in voters’ minds, possibly leading them to rank those candidates lower on their ballots instead of ignoring them altogether.
Kornacki predicts that counting the votes might stretch beyond Tuesday, and the results may not clearly indicate who will be the next mayor of New York City. Regardless of the outcome, both Cuomo and Mamdani are expected to appear on the general election ballot. Cuomo has created a new party, the "Fight and Deliver Party," allowing him to run in November regardless of the primary results. Mamdani is likely to be the candidate for the Working Families Party if he doesn’t win the primary.
Current Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent in the general election, while Republicans are expected to nominate Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels. The entry of both Cuomo and Mamdani adds more competition to the November election.
Mamdani, who represents parts of Queens in the state assembly, has proposed several progressive policies, including defunding the police, expanding rent control, and government-sponsored grocery stores. Betting markets show the race is very close, with a slight lean toward Mamdani following the Emerson poll, which had previously predicted the outcome of the 2021 primary correctly.