Initial results from Germany’s federal election suggest that the conservative parties, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have secured the most votes. Friedrich Merz is poised to become the next chancellor. However, the road to forming a government will not be straightforward.
Despite their strong showing, the CDU-CSU coalition lacks a majority in parliament. This means they will need to form a coalition with other parties to govern effectively. The most likely partner is the Social Democrats (SPD), who finished in third place. However, the two parties have significant disagreements, particularly regarding military support for Ukraine, which could complicate coalition talks.
Building a government can take time, and Merz is eager to expedite the process, especially given pressing issues at home and abroad. One major concern is the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has achieved historic results, coming in second place. This marks a significant moment in German politics, as it is the first time since World War II that a far-right party has garnered such support.
The AfD’s success poses a challenge for Merz and the CDU-CSU, as mainstream parties traditionally adhere to a "firewall" policy, refusing to collaborate with far-right groups due to Germany’s history. Merz has publicly ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, which could lead to protests from the party’s supporters who argue that their exclusion from government is undemocratic.
In the lead-up to the election, there were widespread protests advocating for the maintenance of this firewall. The AfD’s growing popularity can be attributed to public dissatisfaction over issues like migration, economic struggles, and rising prices, all exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. To counter this, Merz has proposed strict migration reforms, including enhanced border checks and potentially denying entry to some asylum seekers.
The next government will also need to address Germany’s economic recovery after two years of recession and restore its leadership role in the European Union. Additionally, with changing dynamics in U.S. foreign policy under the new Trump administration, Germany may need to reassess its military and diplomatic strategies.
As the situation develops, the final election results are still pending, but the new government will have a critical four years to address these challenges. Failure to do so could pave the way for further gains by populist movements in the future.