In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, experts Stephen Biddle and Eric Labs raised an urgent alarm about the United States’ naval capabilities. They argue that the U.S. is facing a significant "ship gap" compared to the Chinese Navy, which could have dire consequences in any future conflict. This gap is not just about the number of warships; it also involves a troubling disparity in shipbuilding capacity.
Biddle and Labs point out that while the U.S. has superior technology and well-trained crews, China’s ability to build ships is vastly greater—over 200 times more than that of the U.S. In a prolonged conflict, this advantage could allow China to replace lost vessels much faster than the U.S. can. They liken the current situation to the early years of World War II, when the U.S. Navy was initially less experienced than Japan’s but eventually turned the tide due to its superior shipbuilding capabilities.
The authors stress that the U.S. must act quickly to close this gap. They highlight that in a long war, numbers will matter significantly. Even if the U.S. loses fewer ships initially, China’s capacity to replenish its fleet could overwhelm American forces over time. This shift in naval power could threaten the U.S.’s long-standing dominance at sea, a status it has held since World War II.
The article also draws historical parallels, noting how Great Britain once enjoyed unmatched naval power until Germany began to challenge it in the early 20th century. Just as Britain faced a decline in its naval supremacy, the U.S. must now confront the reality that its maritime dominance is under threat.
Biddle and Labs’ message is clear: the U.S. needs to ramp up its shipbuilding efforts while it still has the chance. The stakes are high, and the time for action is now.
