Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki is poised to win Poland’s presidential election by a narrow margin, according to late exit polls. The Ipsos poll indicates that Nawrocki has garnered 50.7% of the votes, while his opponent, pro-EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, has 49.3%. This election has captured significant attention, as both candidates have claimed victory amidst a tight race.
Just hours before the latest poll, an earlier Ipsos survey suggested a different outcome, showing Trzaskowski ahead with 50.3% to Nawrocki’s 49.7%. Both polls have a margin of error of two percentage points, highlighting the closeness of this contest. The electoral commission expects to announce final results by Monday afternoon.
Both candidates declared victory after the first poll results were released. Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw, emphasized his commitment to be a president for all Poles, including those who did not support him. He has promised to ease abortion restrictions, introduce civil partnerships for LGBT couples, and strengthen ties with European partners.
Nawrocki, 42, has positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, drawing inspiration from U.S. conservatives like Donald Trump. He expressed confidence that the final vote count would favor him, stating, "We will win and save Poland."
This election is particularly significant, as it reflects the deep political divide in Poland. Trzaskowski advocates for closer ties with the European Union and progressive reforms, while Nawrocki seeks to reinforce national values and maintain skepticism toward the EU. With over 28 million voters, the election could be decided by a margin of fewer than 100,000 votes.
The outcome of this election is being closely watched not just in Poland, but also in neighboring Ukraine, Russia, and across the European Union and the United States. The new president will play a crucial role in shaping the country’s future, especially regarding its relationship with Europe and its domestic policies.
This runoff follows a competitive first round in May, where Trzaskowski received just over 31% of the vote, while Nawrocki came in close behind with nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates. As the nation awaits the final results, the political landscape in Poland hangs in the balance.