Since February, the militant group al-Shabaab has ramped up its attacks in Somalia, raising concerns that they are targeting Mogadishu, the capital city. After a government offensive in 2022 seemed to weaken the group, al-Shabaab has regained strength and captured significant territory. The Somali government is currently embroiled in disputes over constitutional changes, which have strained relations with regional governments. This discord has left the Somali National Army and allied militias without crucial support.
In a recent attack, al-Shabaab targeted President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy near Villa Somalia, the presidential palace. While the president survived, four others were killed, highlighting the group’s growing boldness. The situation has prompted discussions among the U.S., Europe, and African partners about possibly allowing Turkey to take a more prominent role in Somalia, which could lead to another foreign presence in the country.
Al-Shabaab has its roots in the chaos that followed the fall of the Barre government in 1991. Initially part of the Islamic Courts Union, which briefly brought order, the group became more radicalized after a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion ousted them from power in 2007. Since then, they have pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda and have been a persistent threat, controlling large areas of territory.
Despite receiving substantial foreign aid—around $3 billion in the 2010s, primarily for military support—the Somali government has struggled to maintain stability. Corruption remains rampant, with a significant number of lawmakers holding dual citizenship and more focused on personal gain than governance. This has hindered the government’s ability to exert control beyond Mogadishu.
President Mohamud has been pushing for constitutional reforms and more democratic elections, but these efforts have faced resistance from regional governments like Puntland and Jubaland. Both regions have taken steps to assert their autonomy, leading to further conflict and even armed clashes between the Somali National Army and Jubaland forces.
Despite these challenges, the Somali National Army and local militias, known as Macawisleey, launched a counter-offensive against al-Shabaab with some initial success, aided by U.S. airstrikes. However, recent reports suggest that al-Shabaab has made significant gains again, capturing villages and threatening to encircle Mogadishu. Analysts are divided on whether the group will attempt a full assault on the capital.
Matt Bryden from the Sahan Research Group warns that al-Shabaab could encircle Mogadishu, while others remain skeptical of their immediate intentions. The group has developed a parallel governance system in many areas, which raises concerns about their ambitions for control.
Amid these growing threats, there have been calls for President Mohamud to unite the clans to defend the capital. He has signaled a willingness to shift focus from divisive reforms to rallying support against al-Shabaab. Mohamud is also seeking more foreign military assistance, including potential agreements with Turkey. However, his recent offer to the U.S. for control over strategic ports in regions he does not govern reflects a desperate attempt to maintain international support amid rising threats.
As the situation evolves, it remains clear that after years of international aid, the Somali government still struggles to assert control over the country. The future of Mogadishu hangs in the balance as al-Shabaab continues to pose a significant challenge.