Advances in drone technology and artificial intelligence are set to change how defense planning and budgeting are done. However, experts warn against assuming that these innovations will make manned weapons systems unnecessary.
With the possibility of major conflicts on the horizon, the United States needs to maintain its current military capabilities. Cutting funding for existing programs could be a costly mistake. As new technologies are still years away from being operational, it is crucial to continue investing in traditional combat systems.
This discussion isn’t new. After World War I, some believed that tanks would make infantry obsolete. Similarly, after World War II, some military leaders thought airpower would eliminate the need for naval vessels. History shows that predicting how new technologies will impact existing systems is challenging.
Today, air and sea drones are the focus of much attention. Some advocates suggest that the defense budget should prioritize these unmanned systems over traditional warships and fighter jets. However, recent conflicts, like the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, highlight that drones cannot operate alone. They work best alongside infantry and artillery, enhancing their effectiveness.
While drones are becoming more prominent, they have yet to prove themselves in air or naval combat. Their role in future military operations is likely to be significant, but whether they will completely replace manned systems remains uncertain. For instance, operations in the Indo-Pacific require drones with much longer ranges than those used in Ukraine, where engagements are generally shorter.
Some believe that drones are cheaper because they are unmanned. However, the high costs of advanced fighter jets, like the F-35, stem from their powerful engines, sophisticated electronics, and stealth capabilities. A drone designed to match the F-35’s capabilities would likely cost just as much.
Additionally, drone swarms—groups of small drones attacking targets—do not eliminate the need for traditional military assets. While they present new challenges, it is unclear if they would be more effective than existing precision-guided weapons.
Major militaries are actively developing countermeasures against drones, learning from their use in Ukraine to protect ships and bases. Manned warships still play essential roles, including delivering firepower and maintaining a military presence in international waters.
China is investing heavily in its navy, building aircraft carriers and advanced fighter jets, indicating that they see value in traditional military systems.
The U.S. needs to maintain its fleet of warships and manned aircraft to deter potential threats, especially from China in the Indo-Pacific region. Many new technologies are still years away from being ready for deployment, and conflicts could arise before then.
While drones and autonomous systems are becoming more important in modern warfare, they are not a replacement for existing systems but rather a complement to them. The balance between traditional and new military technologies will be crucial for future defense strategies.