In his inaugural speech, President Donald Trump expressed his desire to be seen as a “peacemaker and a unifier.” He emphasized that success should be measured not just by victories but by the wars that are ended or avoided. However, his goal of peace is now at risk as various forces are pushing him toward conflict, particularly in the Middle East.
One significant concern is the ongoing situation in Yemen, where the Houthi movement has intensified attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. This escalation follows Israel’s military actions in Gaza after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. The disruption to shipping has had serious economic impacts, particularly affecting trade between Asia and Europe. The U.S. largely benefits from its access to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, meaning that American trade is less reliant on Middle Eastern routes.
The U.S. has been involved in “freedom of navigation operations” to protect shipping, but this effort seems to primarily benefit China’s trade with Europe. The cost of defending shipping routes has risen, but the impact on U.S. trade has been minimal. The U.S. military has been heavily engaged, expending more air defense missiles in this campaign than in the last three decades, at a staggering cost of over $1 billion. Critics argue that this approach does not prioritize American interests.
Trump is considering escalating airstrikes against the Houthis, but there are doubts about the effectiveness of such actions. Yemen has already suffered greatly from previous military campaigns, and a larger U.S. air campaign may not yield better results. Meanwhile, the ongoing military efforts in Yemen are straining U.S. resources, leading military leaders to voice concerns about readiness, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where tensions with China are high.
Some advisors are advocating for a more aggressive stance against Iran, the Houthis’ main backer. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has suggested that the U.S. should focus on Iran, arguing that the current strategy is not addressing the root of the problem. There are also calls for a joint U.S.-Israel operation to target Iranian nuclear facilities, which adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
However, entering a conflict with Iran, a country significantly larger and more populous than Iraq, could escalate tensions across the region. Vice President J.D. Vance has pointed out that while U.S. and Israeli interests may align at times, there are also moments when they diverge. He stressed that a war with Iran would be costly and distracting for the U.S.
As Trump faces pressure to engage further in the Middle East, he must consider the implications for his legacy and for American interests. The push for military action could undermine his stated goals of peace and unification. To truly protect his legacy and prioritize the well-being of Americans, Trump should resist the calls for another military conflict in the region.